I have seen a lot of people on both sides trying to say rigged polls aren’t real. It seems that many times people don’t understand what rigged polls means . No one is saying that the numbers are just made up. It’s much more involved than that, the rigging involves over sampling and is easy to prove.
Here is a good example of a rigged poll.
So this poll came out yesterday 11/3/16 and has Hillary up 3pts. As you can see they sampled almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans. Normally in a close race independents tend to decide the election. Trump has a substantial lead with independents yet is still losing because the huge gap between Democrats and Republicans. This also explains why many polls with similar over sampling have gotten much closer the last few days. These same polls had Hillary up 12 or so points just a few days ago. Those numbers have tanked since the new information about the FBI investigation. (Most of the national polls ABC and such have been weighting between +8D-+12D the entire election cycle.)
So for example in 2008 the Democrats had a turnout of about +7 in the general election. This poll is assuming the Democrats will have about a +15 better turnout than in 2008. Does anyone really believe Hillary is more popular than 08 Obama? In most polls weighted +1 or +2 in either direction Trump is winning. These polls are more realistic considering the Republicans had a +1 turnout in the primaries. And remember the Republican primaries were over almost a month before the Democrats.
So why do they do this? There are a few theories.
- Its a voter suppression tactic. If Trump supporters only hear he is losing the entire cycle they might be more likely to stay home on election night, thinking its a lost cause.
- It covers up any funny business that might go on election night. If she was winning in the polls all along its hard to ask questions if she wins.
So next time you hear someone say polls are rigged just think about this stuff before calling them crazy.
R.E.V. 